By Katharine Sucher, Science Writing Intern
Fourteen regional and international modeling experts gathered at Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) on May 2 to practice the latest techniques in modeling.
These weren’t cat-walking fashion models; they’re some of the leading experts in fisheries science. And their mathematical models may yield some of the most accurate fish estimates yet.
Changing habitat characteristics—including salinity, temperature, wind direction, and more—all influence fish abundance but were poorly accounted for in previous models. To learn new ways to incorporate these data into estimates of mid-Atlantic fish populations, Virginia Sea Grant funded a one-day modeling workshop for scientists to brush up their skills.
Three presenters introduced new modeling strategies to regional managers and scientists from Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. One presenter travelled from France and two connected remotely from Seattle. The goal of the workshop was not to design a flawless model; it was to educate participants about new modeling strategies.
“If you have surgery you want a surgeon who knows the latest and greatest,” said Mary Fabrizio, VIMS researcher who organized the workshop. “Problems in fisheries science become more and more complex every day. You can’t continue to use techniques from 20 years ago because they don’t answer the complex questions of today.”
Answering these complex questions doesn’t only require improved methods; it requires time to practice and ask questions. That’s why Fabrizio wanted participants to meet in-person rather than virtually.
“When you ask people to come together in a room, they turn off their phones and don’t check their e-mail and are focused on the task at hand,” Fabrizio said.
Participants were focused on improving the precision of fish abundance estimates in the mid-Atlantic. More than three classes of models were discussed including linear models, Delta-GLMM approaches, and MARSS models which can be used to incorporate the effects of changes in gear efficiency, seasonal habitat changes (including salinity, temperature, etc.), and to detect underlying trends in fish abundance. One participant described the workshop as “eye-opening.”
Given the success of this workshop, Fabrizio would consider coordinating events that highlight issues in other parts of the US. And while she believes the event was effective in introducing new approaches, Fabrizio admits abundance modeling will not change overnight.
“This isn’t something you learn easily,” she said. “There’s a whole new world out there, and we’re just skimming the surface.”
